Brunswick Beacon, 01.25.24
Donald Trump won Iowa with 51%, the slimmest possible majority of votes cast. Nor did Trump draw many Iowans to the polls. Out of 720,000 registered Iowa Republicans, only 15%, or 110,000, bothered to caucus. That’s down 41% since 2016. Trump got only 56,260 votes, just 8% of Iowa’s Republicans.
Yes, conditions were frigid. Still, Iowa Republicans turned a cold shoulder to Trump’s narcissistic plea that they risk their lives to vote for him, because “even if you vote and then pass away, it’s worth it.” Nearly as many Iowa Republicans braved the cold to vote against Trump as for him!
The Iowa entrance polls reveal the problem Trump faces in the general election. While 65% of Republicans consider Trump fit to be president even if convicted of one of his 91 pending indictments, that misses the point. What’s more significant is that 31% of Republicans said a single conviction would disqualify him.
That’s consistent with Data Progress’ recent poll which found 35% of Republicans think Jan. 6 was “a violent insurrection,” 32% consider it “a threat to our democracy,” and 19% called it “an attempted coup.”
It’s also consistent with polling that shows 33-40% of Republicans are anti-MAGA. Trump got 89% of Republicans in 2016, 92% in 2020. Trump cannot win if he loses a third of Republicans in 2024.
Trump will almost certainly be the Republican nominee, thanks to his vice-like grip on the MAGA base. But the general election will include Independents, Democrats, and anti-MAGA Republicans. Polling of the general electorate shows 60% approve of Trump’s indictment, 64% reject Trump’s immunity claim, 65% think his indictments are serious, and 80% think Trump should be punished if convicted of trying to overturn the 2020 election.
Trump’s Iowa entrance polls are a warning of what’s to come. They spell trouble, and that starts with “T” and that rhymes with “C” and that stands for “coup.”
Linda McConnell Baker
Leland
Comments